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Month-long Australian Dollar (AUD) weakness has stabilised; AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6535/0.6655 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Rangebound within 0.6535/0.6655 for now

24-HOUR VIEW: “While we expected AUD to ‘trade with an upward bias’ yesterday, we pointed out that “any advance is expected to face strong resistance at 0.6620. Our view was not wrong, as AUD subsequently rose to 0.6619 and then pulled back to trade mostly sideways. The upward pressure has faded, and instead of trading with an upward bias today, AUD is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6565/0.6605.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After holding a negative view in AUD since early last month, we highlighted yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 0.6585) that ‘the month-long AUD weakness has stabilised.’ We expected AUD to ‘trade in a 0.6535/0.6655 range for now.’ We continue to hold the same view.”

• USD/CAD loses ground as commodity-linked CAD might have received support from the steady Oil prices.
• Improved US Treasury yields could limit the downside of the US Dollar.
• Traders will likely observe the BoC Summary of Deliberations and the Ivey PMI data to gain ideas on policy outlook.

USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.3880 during European hours on Tuesday. The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) might have received support from the steady Oil prices as Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (USD).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price maintains its position around $71.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices remain steady as traders adopt caution amid increased uncertainties surrounding the results of the US presidential election on Tuesday.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both predicted victory as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on Monday in the final, frantic day of an exceptionally close US presidential election.

The opinion polls show that Trump and Harris are virtually even. The final winner may not be known for days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump has already indicated he may challenge any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

The US Dollar (USD) receives downward pressure ahead of the US election. However, improved US Treasury yields may limit the downside risk of the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 103.80 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.17% and 4.30%, respectively, at the time of writing.

On the CAD front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to implement a substantial rate cut at its final monetary policy meeting of the year in December. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated the possibility of another 50 basis points (bps) rate reduction.

Traders are expected to focus on Canada’s International Merchandise Trade data, including Imports and Exports, scheduled for release on Tuesday. On Wednesday, attention will shift to the BoC Summary of Deliberations and the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

EUR/USD is just about holding onto gains made over the last few days. Remember these gains have been delivered on the back of, i) some ECB pushback against a 50bp cut in December, ii) Friday's soft US jobs report and iii) yesterday's poll result in Iowa which suggested Harris might be performing better than expected, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

FX options market is primed for a big move in EUR/USD

“And assuming that a clear election result emerges this week, we are primed to deliver new multi-quarter EUR/USD forecasts – having kept a multi-quarter profile from the fourth quarter onwards flat at 1.10 from April this year.”

“The threat of Trump and protectionism has sharpened the senses in European political circles and may be hurrying German political leaders to compromise on the budget side. But for this week, expect the fall-out from US elections to dominate.”

“Ultimately, a Trump win without the House could be the worst scenario for EUR/USD by late 2025, where global growth would be finding no insulation from US tax cuts and the ECB might be forced to cut rates deeper into accommodative territory. It is after the European close tonight, but let's see whether the ECB's Isabel Schabel again pushes back against a 50bp ECB cut in December. Currently the market prices 29bp of cuts.” 

• EUR/GBP consolidates as traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the BoE on Thursday.
• Bets that the BoE will cut rates slowly underpin the GBP and act as a headwind for the cross.
• Diminishing odds for more aggressive ECB rate cuts lend support to the Euro and spot prices.

The EUR/GBP cross struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a narrow trading band below the 0.8400 round-figure mark through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Investors seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the pivotal Bank of England (BoE) policy decision on Thursday.

The UK central bank is widely expected to focus on a longer-term picture of slowing inflation and vote to cut interest rates for the second time this year. That said, expectations that UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' first budget would boost inflation and cause the BoE to cut interest rates more slowly turn out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/GBP cross. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of bets for a less dovish European Central Bank (ECB). 

Data released last week showed that inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2% in October. Furthermore, the better-than-expected GDP growth figures from the Eurozone's largest economies suggest that the ECB will stick to a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut at its next policy meeting in December. This, in turn, continues to underpin the shared currency and fails to assist the EUR/GBP cross to build on last week's breakout momentum beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

Investors also prefer to wait on the sidelines amid the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the EUR/GBP pair's recent bounce from sub-0.8300 levels.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a range between 1.2920 and 1.3000. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is expected to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

GBP is expected to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected GBP to trade in a range between 1.2890 and 1.2980 yesterday. GBP then traded in a narrower and higher range of 1.2935/1.2999. The price action appears be consolidative, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range, likely between 1.2920 and 1.3000.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday, GBP plummeted to a low of 1.2845. In our update from Friday (01 Nov, spot at 1.2900), we indicated that ‘While there has been a buildup in momentum, GBP must break and remain below 1.2845 before further sustained decline can be expected.’ We added, ‘The likelihood of GBP breaking clearly below 1.2845 will remain intact, provided that 1.2985 is not breached.’ Yesterday, GBP broke above 1.2985, reaching a high of 1.2999. Downward momentum has faded, and for the time being, GBP is expected to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range.”

With an exceptionally close US election upon us, plus the outcome likely to deliver a binary impact on currency markets, the FX options market is trading at a respectful level of volatility, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. 

US elections come too close for comfort

“Polls in the seven swing US states close around 03/0400 CET tomorrow morning and we would expect markets to be moving around that time. Given the run-up in the dollar in October, we think we need to see a Red Sweep for the dollar to push on much further. A Harris win would seem a benign outcome and prove a dollar negative – those three currencies: the euro, the Canadian and the Australian dollars could do well here.” 

“The more difficult outcome for the market would be Trump without the House of Representatives or a contested election. IMF analysis in its recent World Economic Outlook warned that the US economy could be 1% weaker than baseline in 2026 if Trump delivers on tariffs but could not offset it with tax cuts. For this reason, and given market positioning into the election, we think the dollar could come lower unless there is a Red Sweep.”

“Ahead of the election, today's US data calendar has ISM services for October. This is expected to soften a little. And were it not for the election, we believe this week's Fed meeting would also prove dollar negative too.”

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its cash rate target unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35%, UOB Group’s economist Lee Sue Ann notes.

First rate cut may not arrive until February meeting in 2025

“The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 13-year high of 4.35% earlier today (5 November), as expected, and continued to emphasize ‘the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation’.”

“The trimmed mean measure of inflation that the RBA pays most attention to will ease slightly faster than predicted, touching the top end of its 2%-3% band by Jun 2025 and reach the mid-point of 2.5% by the end of 2026.”

“There is still the possibility that the first rate cut will not arrive until its February meeting in 2025, if the RBA chooses to wait for the 4Q24 CPI print, due for release on 29 January 2025. In the meantime, we will continue to keep watch on upcoming data releases, including 3Q24 wage data (13 November); October labour market data (14 November), as well as monthly inflation readings for Oct (27 November).”

The Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate between 1.0850 and 1.0905. In the longer run, upward momentum is beginning to build, but any advance in EUR is likely to face significant resistance at 1.0935, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

EUR is likely to face resistance at 1.0935

24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that ‘the outlook for EUR is mixed.’ We expected it to ‘trade sideways, likely staying within last Friday’s range of 1.0831/1.0905.’ EUR subsequently traded in a narrower and higher range of 1.0870/1.0914, closing at 1.0877 (+0.40%). The price movements did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum. The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.0850 and 1.0905.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (01 Nov, spot at 1.0885), wherein ‘upward momentum is beginning to build, but any advance in EUR is likely to face significant resistance at 1.0935.’ Yesterday, EUR gapped higher upon opening. During London trade, it rose briefly to a fresh 3-week high of 1.0914 before pulling back to close at 1.0877. While we continue to expect EUR to advance, there has been no further increase in momentum, and it remains to be seen if it can break above 1.0935 in a sustained manner. On the downside, a breach of 1.0830 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.0815) would mean that the current upward pressure has faded.”

• NZD/USD may test the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern near 0.6000.
• The 14-day RSI offers confirmation of the ongoing bearish bias.
• The immediate support appears at a three-month low at 0.5939.

The NZD/USD pair halts its two days of losses, trading around 0.5990 during Tuesday's early European session. Daily chart analysis indicates a bearish bias, with the pair moving within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, remains below the 50 level, confirming the ongoing bearish sentiment.

Adding to this outlook, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA, reinforcing bearish sentiment for the NZD/USD pair. Short-term momentum remains weak, suggesting sustained downward pressure.

On the downside, NZD/USD may find its support around a three-month low at the 0.5939 level. A break below this level could lead the pair to test the lower boundary of the descending channel near 0.5910, followed by the psychological level of 0.5900 level.

On the resistance side, the NZD/USD tests the nine-day EMA at 0.5990 level, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 14-day EMA at 0.6010 level. A breakthrough above this level could support the pair to explore the region around the psychological level of 0.6100.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• The Pound Sterling trades sideways against the US Dollar in the countdown to the US election.
• Investors expect the Fed and the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday.
• Market participants still assess the impact of the UK budget announcements on the country’s inflation outlook.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a very tight range around 1.2950 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair consolidates ahead of the United States (US) presidential election, which will start in the North American session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, also steadies near 103.80 after a sharp sell-off on Monday.

The Greenback went through a significant unwinding of long positions after the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll showed that current Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, the state where Trump won clearly in 2016 and 2020. The US Dollar had a strong run-up in October as traders were pricing in Trump’s victory, given his preference for protectionist policies is expected to support the Greenback’s valuation.

Trump has vowed to levy a universal 10% tariff on all economies, except China – which is expected to face much higher duties – if he wins the presidential election. In addition to that, he also promised to lower corporate taxes, which would likely result in a high inflationary environment.

The US presidential election is the main event this week. However, investors will also focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75%. This will be the second interest rate cut by the Fed in a row. However, the size of the cut will be smaller after policymakers voted for a 50 bps rate cut in September.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains muted ahead of BoE meeting

• The Pound Sterling trades broadly unchanged against its major peers, with investors focusing on the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy meeting on Thursday. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. This would be the second interest rate cut of the year. Seven Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are expected to vote for further policy easing, while the remaining two will likely support keeping rates steady.
• BoE external member Catherine Mann is expected to be one of two members who would vote to keep interest rates at their current levels. In a panel discussion at the sidelines of International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings on October 24, Mann – an outspoken hawk – welcomed the release of the soft inflation data but emphasized the need for more slowdown. “In order to get to a target consistent with a 2% inflation rate, services (inflation) still have a long way to go,” Mann said.
• When asked about her current interest rate stance, Mann said that rate cuts are premature at this stage.
• Apart from the interest rate decision, investors will look for any comment from the BoE about the impact of the UK Autumn Forecast Statement – unveiled by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves last week – on monetary policy and the inflation outlook. After the budget announcement, the Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) said that the announced fiscal measures are both pro-growth and inflationary.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling wobbles near 1.2950

The Pound Sterling trades sideways against the US Dollar near 1.2950. The GBP/USD pair consolidates inside Monday’s range ahead of the opening of the polls in the US. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bearish as it stays below the 50-day EMA at 1.3060 but has found a cushion near the 200-day EMA around 1.2850.

The pair struggles to hold near the lower boundary of the rising channel formation on the daily time frame. A decisive break below this boundary could trigger further declines.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 40.00, signaling a buying interest at lower levels.

Looking down, the round-level support of 1.2800 will be a major cushion for Pound Sterling bulls. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the 50-day EMA around 1.3060.

• EUR/JPY gains traction to around 165.75 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• The lower bets of a larger ECB rate cut in December support the Euro. 
• Less dovish remarks from the BoJ, safe-haven flows are likely to cap the upside for the cross. 

The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 165.75 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher as the recent Eurozone economic data has diminished expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut larger interest rates in December.

The stronger-than-expected Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data prompted traders to pare bets supporting a larger-than-usual interest rate cut in the December policy meeting. Money markets are currently pricing in a 34 basis points (bps) rate cut, down from a 42 bps reduction the previous day. 

The ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said last week that a “gradual” approach to monetary easing remains appropriate, while Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said officials mustn’t rush further steps on rate cuts. Traders will take more cues from the Eurozone November inflation report, which might offer some hints about the pace and size of ECB interest rate reduction. 

The upside for the cross might be limited amid the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which boost the safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

Additionally, less dovish remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda could lift the JPY in the near term. BoJ’s Ueda said last week that Japan faces smaller risks from the US and global economies, hinting that the Japanese central bank is closer to an additional interest rate hike, possibly in the coming months.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 5:

Financial markets remain on edge as the US presidential election takes center stage, with latest polls pointing to a tight race. On Tuesday, the US economic calendar will feature Goods Trade Balance data for September and the ISM Services PMI report for October. Later in the day, the US Treasury will hold a 10-year note auction. 

The TIPP poll has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 48, the Ipsos poll has Harris leading by 2 points, 50 vs 48, and the Atlas Intel poll has Trump having a one point lead, 50 vs 49, as per RealClearPolling. In some swing states, such as Arizona and North Carolina, Trump seems to be staying on top, while Harris seems to have closed the gap in others, such as Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Experts think that it might take at least a few days before there is a clear winner. In the meantime, US stock index futures trade marginally higher in the European morning and the US Dollar Index fluctuates in a tight range slightly below 104.00 after closing deep in negative territory on Monday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Tuesday that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected. In its policy statement, the RBA reiterated that the policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and added that they do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026. In the post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that they remain ready to act if the economy were to turn down more than expected. AUD/USD gained traction following the RBA event and was last seen trading in positive territory at around 0.6600.

During the Asian trading hours, the data from China showed the Caixin Services PMI improved to 52 in October from 50.3 in September. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 50.5.

EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in over two weeks above 1.0900 on Monday but erased its gains to close the day flat. Early Tuesday, the pair moves sideways near 1.0880.

GBP/USD met resistance near 1.3000 after opening the week with a bullish gap and went into a consolidation phase. At the time of press, the pair was fluctuating in a narrow channel slightly above 1.2950.

USD/JPY holds steady above 152.00 in the European morning on Tuesday after posting losses on Monday. 

Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction and ended the day virtually unchanged on Monday. XAU/USD stays relatively quiet to begin the European session and remains below $2,750.

• EUR/USD trades in positive territory around 1.0880 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• The negative outlook of the pair prevails below the 100-day EMA and bearish RSI indicator. 
• The immediate resistance level emerges at  1.0931; the first downside target is seen at 1.0800. 

The EUR/USD pair remains firmer near 1.0880 during the early European session on Tuesday. The uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election outcome weighs on the Greenback and provides some support to the pair. 

 “A Republican clean sweep can send the dollar higher, but probably by less than how much a Harris win could hit USD. The dollar might not rally at all if Trump wins but Democrats secure the (U.S. House of Representatives),” noted ING Bank analysts. 

Technically, the EUR/USD pair keeps the bearish vibe on the daily chart as the major pair holds below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Additionally, the downward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 47.25, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside. 

The 1.0800 psychological level acts as an initial support level for EUR/USD. Further south, the next contention level is seen at the 1.0770-1.0760 region, representing the low of October 24 and the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. A breach of the mentioned level could expose 1.0666, the low of June 26.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the major pair emerges near 1.0931, the 100-day EMA. The additional upside filter to watch is 1.0951, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. The crucial resistance level is located at the 1.1000 round mark.  

EUR/USD daily chart

• USD/CHF remains steady due to market caution amid increased uncertainty surrounding the US election results.
• Improved US Treasury yields could have provided support for the US Dollar.
• The continued slowdown in Swiss inflation has increased the likelihood of a bumper SNB rate cut in December.

USD/CHF holds ground after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8640 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) remains steady as traders adopt market caution amid increased uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Additionally, improved US Treasury yields also provide support for the Greenback.

The opinion polls indicate that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied. The outcome may remain unknown for several days following Tuesday’s vote. Both Trump and Harris expressed confidence in their chances as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on the last frantic day of this exceptionally close presidential race.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 103.90 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.16% and 4.29%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) may encounter difficulties as the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) increases. This shift is driven by a continued slowdown in inflation in Switzerland, evidenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which declined by 0.6% year-over-year in October. This CPI figure was notably below the SNB’s inflation forecast of 1% for the fourth quarter, raising the chances that the SNB could implement a more substantial rate cut in December to keep inflation within its target range of 0-2%.

FX option expiries for Nov 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

EUR/USD: EUR amounts

• 1.0725 2.5b
• 1.0750 1.2b
• 1.0850 2b
• 1.0900 1.7b
• 1.0950 1.3b

GBP/USD: GBP amounts     

• 1.3000 710m
• 1.3115 988m

USD/JPY: USD amounts                     

• 151.00 440m
• 152.00 1.1b
• 152.50 510m

USD/CHF: USD amounts     

• 0.8750 896m

AUD/USD: AUD amounts

• 0.6530 412m
• 0.6600 715m

USD/CAD: USD amounts       

• 1.3905 587m

NZD/USD: NZD amounts

• 0.6000 410m

EUR/GBP: EUR amounts        

• 0.8425 410m
• 0.8430 408m

• Silver price maintains its position as traders adopt caution due to increased uncertainty surrounding the US election results.
• The opinion polls indicate that former President Trump and Vice President Harris are nearly tied.
• Silver demand may increase due to rising expectations for additional stimulus measures from China.

Silver price (XAG/USD) maintains its position around 32.50 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday as traders adopt caution ahead of the US presidential election. However, the heightened uncertainty surrounding the election has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like Silver.

The risk aversion sentiment has been amplified by speculation that a potential presidency under Republican nominee Donald Trump could lead to higher inflation, given his pledge to significantly raise trade tariffs. This has prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets as a hedge against long-term inflation risks.

However, the opinion polls indicate that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied. The final outcome may remain unknown for several days following Tuesday’s vote. Both Trump and Harris expressed confidence in their chances as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on the last frantic day of this exceptionally close presidential race.

US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision will be eyed on Thursday. Markets expect a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November. This could provide support for Silver as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.

Expectations for additional stimulus measures from China could bolster Silver demand as the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) holds a five-day meeting from November 4 to 8. Chinese authorities are anticipated to approve a potential stimulus package exceeding 10 trillion yuan to support the country's economy. Given China’s position as one of the world’s largest manufacturing hubs for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, this could lead to increased demand for Silver.

• AUD/NZD rallies around 45 pips intraday following the release of the upbeat Chinese PMI print.
• The RBA’s on-hold rate decision and hawkish outlook do little to provide any meaningful impetus.
• Bets for more aggressive RBNZ interest rate cuts favor bulls ahead of NZ jobs data on Wednesday.

The AUD/NZD cross reverses an Asian session dip to the 1.0990 region and rallies to a one-week top on Tuesday in reaction to the upbeat Chinese data. Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains around the 1.1030 area and move little after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its policy decisions. 

Data published earlier this Tuesday showed that business activity in China's services sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months during October and the Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI rose from 50.3 in September to 52. This was consistent with the official PMIs released last week and could be seen as an early sign that China's big stimulus push is helping improve business conditions, which, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on the other hand, continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of rising bets for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The expectations were reaffirmed by RBNZ's semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which indicated that the economic conditions remain challenging and also warned about the impact of geopolitical tensions on the economy.  

The report further stated that rising unemployment is starting to create acute financial difficulties for some households. Adding to this, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the real economy is lagging reduction in interest rates. Meanwhile, the RBA's widely anticipated decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% and hawkish outlook did little to impress the AUD bulls or provide any meaningful impetus to the AUD/NZD cross. 

In the post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that there are still risks on the upside for inflation and that rates need to stay restrictive for the time being. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/NZD cross remains to the upside. Investors now look forward to the release of the quarterly employment report on Wednesday, which could determine the near-term trajectory for the currency pair.

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 7,393.81 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 7,403.41 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 86,243.14 per tola from INR 86,351.97 per tola a day earlier.

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking at the press conference, following the announcement of the November monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

Bullock is responding to questions from the media, as part of a new reporting format for the central bank starting this year.

The RBA maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for the eighth straight meeting earlier this Tuesday.

Key quotes

Labor market remains tight.

Wage growth continue to ease.

Policy settings are restrictive.

Believe rates need to stay restrictive for time being.

Think there are still risks on upside for inflation.

Rises of 0.8% in core inflation would not take us back into the band.

Have right settings at moment.

developing story ...

Market reaction

AUD/USD is holding gains near 0.6600 on the above comments, up 0.11% on the day, as of writing.

• Gold price slides to a one-week low amid some repositioning trades ahead of the US election.
• Fed rate cut bets, falling US bond yields and subdued USD demand could lend some support.
• Middle East tensions might further contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and drops to over a one-week low, around the $2,725-2,724 region, though the downside seems cushioned. The uncertainty surrounding the closely contested US presidential election, along with the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, might continue to offer support to the safe-haven precious metal.

Meanwhile, the unwinding of the "Trump trade" and bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates further amid signs of a cooling US labor market lead to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields. This fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) to build on the overnight bounce from a two-week low and should further contribute to limiting any meaningful depreciating move for the non-yielding Gold price. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might continue to draw support from US political jitters, Middle East woes

• The recent opinion polls indicated that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are locked in a tight race to the White House, fueling political uncertainty.
• The winning odds of former President Donald Trump have fallen significantly, prompting some unwinding of the "Trump Trade" and dragging the US Treasury bond yields lower.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond and the two-year Treasury note registered their biggest one-day decline in two months and nearly three weeks, respectively.
• A part of the decline in the US bond yields could further be attributed to rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, bolstered by signs of a weakening US labor market. 
• Iran signaled that it would deliver a harsh response to Israel's late-October strikes on its territory, while the US directly warned Iran against launching another attack against its ally Israel. 
• Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI later during the US session, although it might do little to provide any impetus ahead of the US presidential election. 

Technical Outlook: Gold price could find some support near $2,750-2,715 area ahead of the lower end of an ascending channel

From a technical perspective, last week's failure near the top boundary of an ascending channel extending from late July and the subsequent pullback from the all-time peak could be seen as a sign of bullish exhaustion. However, mixed oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for further losses. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find some support near the $2,720-2,715 horizontal zone, below which the Gold price could aim to challenge the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the $2,690 region. Some follow-through selling would mark a bearish breakdown and pave the way for some meaningful corrective fall in the near term.

On the flip side, the $2,748-2,750 area now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $2,790 region, or the record high touched last Thursday. This is followed by the $2,800 round figure and the ascending channel resistance, around the $2,820 zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the Gold price to prolong its recent well-established uptrend.

• AUD/JPY trades in positive territory in Tuesday’s Asian session, up 0.22% on the day. 
• The RBA decided to keep the OCR on hold at 4.35% at its November meeting on Tuesday. 
• The US presidential election uncertainty might cap the upside for the cross. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains traction to near 100.40 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. 

The RBA kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 4.35% following the conclusion of its November policy meeting. The decision came in line with market expectations. The Aussie remains firm following the RBA rate decision. 

According to the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the board members will continue to rely upon the upcoming data and the evolving assessment of risks. The policymaker further stated that the monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the central bank is confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward the target range. 

Traders will take more cues from the RBA’s updated economic forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference, which might offer some insight into the interest rate outlook. 

On the other hand, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election could boost the safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap the upside for the cross. Additionally, less dovish remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda could underpin the JPY in the near term. "Many market players had bet that the next rate hike will come in the January-March quarter next year. But he sounded as if he left open the chance of a December hike," said Hiroshi Watanabe, senior economist at Sony Financial Group.

• USD/CAD remains steady as traders adopt caution due to increased uncertainty surrounding the US election results.
• Former President Trump indicated that he may challenge any unfavorable election result, as he did in 2020.
• The commodity-linked CAD may struggle due to cooling WTI price, despite a more than 3% increase on Monday.

The USD/CAD pair maintains its position around 1.3900 during Tuesday’s Asian session, as traders exercise caution amid heightened uncertainty over the US presidential election outcome. However, a lower-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report for October, showing an increase of only 12,000 compared to the previous 223,000, has put downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD).

The opinion polls show that Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually even. The final winner may not be known for days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump and Harris both predicted victory as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on Monday in the final, frantic day of an exceptionally close US presidential election. Trump has already indicated he may challenge any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

Traders await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision, which is scheduled for Thursday. Markets expect a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November.

The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges from a cooling WTI price, despite a more than 3% increase on Monday after the OPEC+ coalition announced a delay in its December production hike. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $71.20 per barrel at the time of writing.

The Canadian Dollar may weaken as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to implement additional rate cuts at its final monetary policy meeting of the year in December. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated the possibility of another 50 basis points (bps) rate reduction.

Last week, Governor Macklem told to Senate Committee “We’ve demonstrated we’re prepared to do a 50-basis-points cut if we think that’s appropriate. And if we think it’s appropriate to do it again, we’ll do it again.”

• The Indian Rupee extends the decline in Tuesday’s Asian session.
• Negative domestic markets and relentless foreign capital outflows weigh on the INR.
• Investors await the outcome of the US presidential election for fresh catalysts.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downside on Tuesday after closing at a new all-time low in the previous session. The downtick movement of the local currency is pressured by continuous foreign outflows from the equity markets due to jitters amid institutional players ahead of the outcome of the US presidential election and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Thursday.

Nonetheless, the likely foreign exchange intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) by selling US Dollar (USD) could help limit the INR’s losses. Looking ahead, investors brace for the winner of the US presidential election, which may not be known for days after voting ends. On Thursday, the Fed monetary policy meeting will be closely watched.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains vulnerable amid US election-related uncertainty

• The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 57.5 in October from an eight-month low of 56.5 in September and was above a preliminary estimate of 57.4.
• "India's headline manufacturing PMI picked up substantially in October as the economy's operating conditions continue to broadly improve," noted Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.
• "The polls suggesting that Harris may have her nose in front in a couple of swing states is causing a bit of profit-taking in the Trump trade,” noted Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.
• According to the IMF, India is now estimated to overtake Japan as the world's fourth-biggest economy by FY2025. The IMF forecasts that India's GDP will rise to $4,340 billion next fiscal year.
• Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 98% possibility of a quarter point reduction and a near 80% chance of a similar-sized move in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR keeps the positive bias

The Indian Rupee softens on the day. According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook of the USD/INR pair remains unchanged as the pair is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline near 65.20, indicating that further upside looks favorable.

The upper boundary of the ascending trend channel of 84.25 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. A clear bullish candlestick above this level could pave the way to 84.50, en route to the 85.00 psychological level.

On the flip side, a breach of the lower limit of the trend channel near 84.05 could attract enough bearish pressure to 83.78, the 100-day EMA.

• Oil prices receive downward pressure as traders adopt caution ahead of US election results on Tuesday.
• WTI prices rose more than 3% after OPEC+ postponed its planned production increase for December on Monday.
• Oil demand may increase as China is expected to approve an additional stimulus package of more than 10 trillion yuan.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges lower due to uncertainties surrounding the results of the US presidential election on Tuesday. The WTI price trades around $71.20 during the Asian hours after rising more than 3% on Monday, which could be attributed to OPEC+ coalition, delaying plans to hike production in December.

On Sunday, the OPEC+ alliance—which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies like Russia—agreed to extend its production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) through December 2024, citing weak demand and rising supply outside the group.

Regarding the US presidential election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both predicted victory as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on Monday in the final, frantic day of an exceptionally close US presidential election.

The opinion polls show that Trump and Harris are virtually even. The final winner may not be known for days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump has already indicated he may challenge any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) is meeting in China from November 4 to 8 and is expected to approve additional stimulus measures to support the slowing economy. Media reports suggest that the potential stimulus package could exceed 10 trillion yuan. Any new measures could positively impact Oil prices, as China is the world’s largest Oil importer.

Oil prices may have struggled due to the fading likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Lower borrowing costs could stimulate economic activity in the United States (US), the world’s largest Oil consumer, potentially boosting oil demand and prices. However, markets expect a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November.

China's Premier Li Qiang said at an Import Expo in Shanghai on Tuesday that he is “confident of meeting this year’s growth target.”

Additional comments

Must build a stronger consensus for opening up.

China will upgrade free trade zones.

China will explore free trade and investment agreements with other countries.

China will continue to open telecommunications, internet, healthcare, and other sectors for investment.

China stands ready to work with all sides to enhance coordination and collaboration.

Many positive developments in China's economy indicate a favourable outlook.

China has both fiscal and monetary tools at its disposal.

Optimistic about economic prospects in the coming years.

China can increase counter-cyclical adjustment.

• Gold price mires in multi-day troughs near $2730 as Americans head to polls.  
• The US Dollar licks its wounds after the Trump trades unwinding on Monday.                  
• Gold traders stay unnerved below the 23.6% Fibo level, despite bullish technicals.

Gold price is miring in five-day lows near $2,730 in Asian trading on Tuesday, lacking a clear direction. Traders remain wary and refrain from placing fresh bets on Gold price on the US presidential election day.  

All eyes on US presidential election, exit polls

Gold price has entered a phase of downside consolidation, following its slump from all-time highs of $2,790 reached last Thursday, in the face of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand. The Greenback jumped back into the bid, capitalizing on the Trump trade optimism.

Until last week, markets were pricing in a Republican nominee Donald Trump victory in the presidential race. They believed Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the USD while a policy continuity is seen on a Harrish win.

However, the tide turned against the USD on Monday as traders resorted to the unwinding of the Trump trade, as the latest polls released over the weekend showed that US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris surpassed Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, marking a notable turnaround.

Harris and Trump are seen locked in a tight race for the White House.

Early Tuesday, the latest developments around the US election show that former president Donald Trump is leading Vice President Harris in each of the seven swing states though the margin is narrow. The AtlasIntel survey said Trump is holding the widest margin in Arizona, with a 52.3% to Harris' 45.8%.

This update seems to have helped the Greenback pause its downside, keeping the USD-denominated Gold price on the edge. Further, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also lend support to the USD.

Besides, the uncertainty surrounding the US election outcome, markets also take account of the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran.

The Israeli military said that it had killed a commander of Hezbollah's Nasser Brigade rocket unit in southern Lebanon. In response, Hezbollah announced it launched a “large rocket salvo” targeting the northern Israeli city of Safed, marking an escalation in cross-border tensions.

If the geopolitical tensions escalate further, investors are likely to scurry to the traditional safe-haven Gold price, cushioning its downside.

However, the sentiment around the US election is expected to play a pivotal role in the Gold price action in the upcoming days.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price challenges the key $2,730 demand area as sellers retain control.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging slightly lower to near 59, justifying the latest downtick in Gold price.

However, the leading indicator continues to hold above the 50 level, keeping the buying interest somewhat alive.  

Gold buyers need to reclaim the $2,746 resistance on a daily closing basis to resume its uptrend. That level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to the new all-time high of $2,790.

The next bullish target is seen at the record high of $2,790.

Conversely, a sustained move below $2,730 will expose the 38.2% Fibo support at $2,718.

Acceptance below that level on a daily candlestick closing basis could challenge the $2,700 confluence zone, where the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) close in.

Additional declines will call for a test of the 61.8% Fibo support at $2,673.

• The Japanese Yen weakens slightly on Tuesday, though the downside remains cushioned.
• The BoJ’s hawkish hints, along with a weaker risk tone, offer support the safe-haven JPY.
• The US election-related uncertainty and Fed rate cut bets keep the USD bulls on the defensive.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks lower against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from a one-week high touched the previous day. The downside for the JPY, however, seems limited as traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Moreover, bets for a potential interest rate hike at the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting in December could also offer some support to the JPY. 

Meanwhile, the "Trump trade" unwinding, along with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates later this week, leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields, resulting in the narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and should act as a tailwind for the JPY. Furthermore, a weaker risk tone could benefit the JPY and contribute to keeping a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen could draw support from BoJ rate hike bets, declining US bond yields

• The USD/JPY pair regains some positive traction on Tuesday, though a combination of factors might cap the upside ahead of this week's key event risks – the US presidential election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. 
• Despite the political uncertainty in Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that the central bank remains committed to normalizing its monetary policy by gradually hiking interest rates if economic data align with forecasts.
• Friday's weaker US jobs report for October, which showed that Nonfarm Payrolls registered the smallest gain since December 2020, reaffirmed market bets for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week. 
• The chances of Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election have deteriorated noticeably and the Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead in some polls, though overall they show a tight race to the White House. 
• This prompts traders to unwind "Trump trades" and leads to a further decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan rate differential and offering some support to the Japanese Yen amid a generally weaker risk tone.
• Meanwhile, the "Trump trade" unwinding fails to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a two-week low, warranting some caution for the USD/JPY bulls and positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. 

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY technical setup favors bulls, the overnight swing low around mid-151.00s holds the key

From a technical perspective, the 152.00 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight swing low, around the 151.55-151.50 region. Some follow-through selling could drag the USD/JPY pair further below the 151.00 mark, toward testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance breakpoint, currently pegged near the 150.30 region. This is followed by the 150.00 psychological mark, which if broken decisively will set the stage for deeper losses. 

On the flip side, momentum beyond the overnight swing high, around the 152.55-152.60 area, could extend further toward the 153.00 mark. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the USD/JPY pair to the 153.35-153.40 supply zone en route to the 153.85-153.90 region, or a three-month peak touched last week. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory, spot prices might then climb to the next relevant hurdle near the 154.60-154.70 area before aiming to reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark. 

• The Australian Dollar gained ground ahead of the RBA’s policy decision on Tuesday.
• Australia's Judo Bank Services and Composite PMIs improved to 51.0 and 50.2, respectively, in October.
• The US Dollar faced challenges amid uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains its position after registering gains in the previous session following improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Tuesday. Traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision scheduled to be released later in the day.

The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI improved to 51.0 in October from 50.6 in the previous reading. This figure was above the market consensus of 50.6. The Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October versus 49.8 prior. Additionally, Caixin China Services PMI rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35%, marking an eighth consecutive pause in November. The central bank is expected to hold current rates following its policy meeting.

Traders will likely focus on the RBA’s updated economic forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for new insights on the potential timing of the bank’s first rate cut since its post-COVID tightening cycle.

Investors will closely monitor the outcome of the US presidential election. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both predicted victory as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on Monday in the final, frantic day of an exceptionally close US presidential election.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar receives support from improved PMI data

• The opinion polls show that Trump and Harris are virtually even. The final winner may not be known for days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump has already indicated he may challenge any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.
• The US dollar (USD) struggled amid the election-related uncertainty, with strategists linking the currency’s weakness to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Republican candidate Donald Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa.
• The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Thursday will also be closely watched. Markets expect a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November.
• The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and preceding the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading.
• ANZ Australia Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, a notable slowdown from the upwardly revised 2.3% gain in September. Despite the weaker growth, this marks the second consecutive month of increases.
• China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hopes that Australia will continue enhancing its business environment and ensure fair and equitable treatment for Chinese companies.
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that October’s Nonfarm Payrolls increased by only 12,000, following a revised September gain of 223,000 (down from 254,000), which fell well short of market expectations of 113,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% in October, matching the consensus forecast.
• Australia's Producer Price Index rose by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following a 1.0% increase in the prior period and surpassing market forecasts of a 0.7% rise. This marks the 17th consecutive period of producer inflation. On an annual basis, the PPI growth slowed to 3.9% in Q3, down from the previous quarter’s 4.8% increase.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains below 0.6600, nine-day EMA

AUD/USD trades near 0.6590 on Tuesday, with the daily chart hinting at a potential easing of the bearish trend as the pair tests the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating that the bearish outlook persists.

On the resistance side, AUD/USD faces the nine-day EMA at 0.6596, with further resistance at the 14-day EMA at 0.6618. A break above these levels could strengthen the pair, possibly aiming for a psychological level of 0.6700.

In terms of support, immediate support is around the three-month low at 0.6536. A drop below this level could drive the pair toward the key psychological support at 0.6500.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Tuesday.

The market consensus was for 50.5 in the reported period.

• NZD/USD edges lower to 0.5970 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• Markets are widely expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps when it announces its policy decision on Thursday. 
• The RBNZ stated the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough. 

The NZD/USD pair weakens to near 0.5970 on Tuesday during the Asian trading hours. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and the remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) weigh on the pair. Investors brace for the outcome of the US presidential election, which might trigger the volatility in the financial markets. 

The decline in the Greenback is likely due to a poll released over the weekend that reduced the probability of Republican Donald Trump winning the elections. Analysts said a Harris win might benefit the riskier currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a Trump victory could support the USD due to expected protectionist policies and higher inflation.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision, with markets widely anticipating that the US central bank will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 98% possibility of a quarter point reduction and a near 80% odds of a similar-sized move in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool. 

On the Kiwi front, the RBNZ noted on Tuesday that the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough, adding that geopolitical tensions are the key risk for the economy. The RBNZ began cutting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in August and stepped up the pace last month when it lowered the OCR by 50 bps to 4.75%. Most economists expect another 50 bps reduction on November 27.

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1016, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1203 and 7.1019 Reuters estimates.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stated on Tuesday that the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough. The New Zealand central bank also warns of the impact of geopolitical tensions on the economy.  

Key quotes

Economic conditions remain challenging, business is doing it tough. 

Geopolitical tensions do really matter, key risk for the economy. 

RBNS Orr concerned as reduction in interest rates lags real economy. 

Climate change poses existential threat. 

Market reaction

At the press time, the NZD/USD pair was down 0.06% on the day to trade at 0.5968. 

• GBP/USD flat lines around 1.2950 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• The Greenback loses ground in response to improved polling for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. 
• The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates at its November meeting on Thursday. 

The GBP/USD pair trades flat near 1.2950 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the outcome of the US presidential election. On Thursday, the attention will shift to the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s value against six major currencies, broke below the 104.00 support and reached fresh two-week lows near 103.60 in response to improved polling for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. 

Strategists said the USD weakness was linked to a poll by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom that showed Harris with a 47-44% lead over Trump in Iowa. 

The Fed's rate decision will take center stage on Thursday, which is widely expected to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points (bps) at the November meeting, rather than repeat the large 50 bps easing of its last decision. Fed Funds futures are pricing in over 80% chance of a December cut, while the swaps market is pricing in close to 50% possibility. 

On the GBP’s front, economists polled by Reuters forecast a quarter-point reduction in the benchmark rate to 4.75% at its BoE’s rate decision on Thursday. However, the longer-term outlook is less clear, with BoE governor Andrew Bailey unlikely to raise hope of another rate cut before the end of the year.

The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 51.0 in October from 50.6 in the previous reading. This figure was above the market consensus of 50.6, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Tuesday.

The Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October versus 49.8 prior.  

Market reaction

At the press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.03% on the day to trade at 0.6585. 

• EUR/USD remains firmer around 1.0880 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• The outcome of the US presidential election and the Fed rate decision will be the highlights for this week.  
• A slew of Eurozone economic data dampens the hope of large rate cuts by  the ECB in December.

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.0880 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower as traders brace for the outcome of the US presidential election and a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which supports some support for the major pair. 

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain almost tied in opinion polls, and the results will be announced for days after voting ends. "The polls suggesting that Harris may have her nose in front in a couple of swing states is causing a bit of profit-taking in the Trump trade,” noted Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.

Furthermore, the rising expectation that the Fed will cut the interest rate at its November meeting drags the Greenback lower. The US central bank is widely anticipated to cut rates by the usual 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, rather than the outsized half-point easing of its last decision. According to CME's FedWatch tool, financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 98% odds of a quarter-point reduction and a near 80% chance of a similar-sized move in December.

Across the pond, the Euro gathers strength as the recent Eurozone economic data has diminished expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower larger interest rates in December. Money markets are currently pricing in a 34 bps rate cut, down from a 42 bps reduction the previous day, indicating that the odds of a deeper 0.5% reduction are diminishing. During the October meeting, the central bank reiterated its commitment to a "data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting" approach to future policy decisions. However, the Eurozone November inflation report might offer some hints about the ECB interest rate outlook. 
 

• Gold prices stabilize, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% amid market turbulence.
• US Treasury yields dip; USD weakens as investors await Fed's 25 bps rate cut.
• Analysts suggest a Trump victory could boost gold further due to inflation concerns.

Gold prices remained choppy during Monday’s session as the US presidential election continued amid uncertainty about who would win the White House. Additionally, this week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower rates at the November 6-7 meeting.

The XAU/USD trades at $2,736, virtually unchanged. Yields in the US 10-year benchmark note have fallen eight basis points, after hitting 4.388% last week, sitting at 4.30% at the time of writing. In the meantime, the Greenback, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) performance, tumbled over 0.40%, down to 103.90.

Wall Street is focused on the outcome of the US presidential election. Opinion polls show Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in a technical tie. A Reuters poll showed concerns that the US could face a similar election crisis post-Trump’s 2020 election defeat.

By Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points to the 4.50%-4.75% range. October’s US economic data revealed that the US jobs market remains solid, lowering the odds of the US hitting a recession.

Analysts at TD Securities said “If Trump wins, I think, Gold does well here. We're probably worried a little bit more about inflation with all the tariffs that he's talking about.” Bullion is a hedge in tough and uncertain economic and political times.

The golden metal has enjoyed a rally of over 30% in 2024, and has recorded all-time highs, which sits at $2,790 at the time of writing.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price consolidates amid US Presidential election

• The US Census Bureau reported that US factory orders in September contracted by -0.5%, slightly more than the expected -0.4%, but there was an improvement over August's -0.8% decline.
• Last week’s rising US inflation and dismal jobs report raised the chances of the Federal Reserve reducing rates in 0.25% chunk sizes.
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is anticipated to cut rates by 25 bps at its November 7 meeting.
• Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, based on the December fed funds rate futures contract, indicates that investors are pricing in 50 basis points (bps) of Fed easing by the end of the year.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Gold price retreats below $2,750 as bulls take a breather

Gold prices remain consolidated. The XAU/USD fluctuated between $2,730 and $2,748 during the trading day, with no catalyst for moving it outside of those boundaries.

Momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though buyers seem to have lost a step as the RSI edges lower in bullish territory.

Gold buyers need to reclaim the psychological $2,750 figure for a bullish continuation. Once cleared, the next stop would be the record high at $2,790. Conversely, if XAU/USD registers a daily close below $2,750, further weakness lies ahead.

The first support would be the October 23 low at $2,708. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $2,700, followed by the September 26 swing high, which turned support at $2,685, and by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,628.