The SNP500 fell 1.35% on Wednesday wiping off the gains from the week. The decline is primarily due to fears of the upcoming US trade policy on April 2nd and beyond. In the President’s latest speech investors heard Trump confirm he looks to tax foreign cars with 25% tariffs and will add retaliation tariffs on Canada and the EU if they look to retaliate.

The US Latest Comments On Global Trade

The main concern for investors is the US President’s latest comments on the EU potentially collaborating with Canada. The two countries are aiming to push the US into a more favourable trade agreement. Donald Trump states that “if the EU works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale tariffs far larger than currently planned will be placed on both”.

Up to now, both Canada and the EU have advised markets that they will retaliate. As a result, investors fear how these policies can trigger lower consumer demand, higher inflation and even a potential recession. The latest consumer confidence fell for the fourth day to 92.9, missing the 94.2 forecast. The economic outlook dropped to 65.2, a 12-year low, staying below the 80.0 recession warning level. However, the Federal Reserve so far in 2025 is advising the US economy remains stable despite the uncertainties.

Furthermore, the US confirms they intend to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports and essential parts, including engines, transmissions, and electrical components. Many countries have already voiced their concerns over this decision.

The Federal Reserve and Inflation

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated yesterday that policymakers may postpone monetary easing for 12 to 18 months due to market uncertainty. He also continues warning that rising inflation expectations could complicate efforts to slow it down.

Another member to voice concerns is Alberto Musalem, a US economist and banker. The risk of US inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, or even increasing, continues to grow, with higher import taxes potentially driving sustained price pressures. In the latest month, US inflation fell from 3.00% to 2.8% which is positive for the stock market, but only if it continues to fall towards 2.00%. There is currently only a 10% chance of an interest rate cut in May 2025 according to the Chicago Exchange.

Economists advise the upcoming data will be vital and can significantly influence the risk appetite of the market. Traders will be focusing on today’s Final US GDP and tomorrow's Core PCE Price Index. If tomorrow’s PCE Price Index reads more than 0.3%, the stock market could quickly witness renewed pressure.

SNP500 (USA500) - Technical Analysis

Regardless of the above fundamental factors which are triggering the recent decline, the SNP500 has risen 0.35% during this morning’s Asian session. The bullish corrective wave currently measures 40% of yesterday’s bearish impulse wave. Though traders should also note that global indices including within the EU and Asia are continuing to decline.

The price in a 15-minute timeframe remains below most trend lines and Moving Averages. In addition to this, the price is again dropping below the neutral level of the RSI and the VWAP. If the price regains downward momentum and falls below $5,701.98, many traders may consider bearish momentum to be regaining ground. At this point, sell signals potentially can materialize.

Further adding to the indications of downward price movement is the VIX index which is currently trading 0.60% higher. The higher the VIX index the lower the appetite there is towards the US stock market. Lastly, the US 10-Year Treasury Yields continue to rise adding further pressure on the stock market. The 10 Year Treasury Yields are currently trading 25 points higher.

Key Takeaway Levels:

• The SNP500 dropped 1.35% as investors reacted to fears surrounding the upcoming US trade policy changes on April 2nd. This includes a potential 25% tariff on foreign cars and retaliatory tariffs against Canada and the EU.
• Fed officials warn that inflation risks remain high, with import tariffs potentially driving further price pressures.
• Inflation recently fell to 2.8%, but concerns persist about whether it will reach the Fed’s 2% target.
• Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US GDP and Core PCE Price Index data. If PCE exceeds 0.3%, stocks could face renewed pressure.
• Despite a slight rebound in the SNP500, indicators like RSI, VWAP, and the rising VIX index suggest bearish momentum could return, particularly if the index falls below $5,701.98.